"Forecast" calculation mode

This mode presents a quick and practical way to calculate costs that enable the determination of production costs through variables accessible in construction.

By using fewer influence variables and an existing basis of similar manufacturing parts, the costing function is attained by using statistical methods.

The calculation algorithm begins before the mode has even started tabulating with a description of characteristics (basic materials, semifinished parts, dimensions) of the item to be calculated, so that a characteristic area is given in which similar solutions can be searched.

Hint

You can manually determine which manufacturing parts to use as reference parts for the Forecast calculation mode by storing previously calculated manufacturing parts into the Forecast folder in the Workspace Explorer.

Forecast mode is available for:

  • Assemblies
  • Manufacturing parts

The Forecast mode is displayed in the calculation overview in rows colored in turquoise:

Figure: Calculation overview (excerpt)

Note

For costing types:

If the Forecast mode is used in the base calculation, the mode is replaced by Estimation in the costing type.

The estimated value of the element results from the forecast value calculated. The costs that result may differ, since the modes work with different cost types and therefore also with different surcharges.

Assign the Forecast calculation mode with validities

Activating the validities in the system settings, enables the Advanced calculation mode to be shown in an expanded view. It includes the "Validities" tab. The corresponding fields ("Cycle times" and "Cavities") are deactivated in the "Validities" tab. It shows the value of the currently set calculation year.

  • You can enter validity-based manufacturing parameters.

    • Further Information see Calculations

  1. Select the element in the project structure you wish to set the Forecast mode at.
  2. In the ribbon, click on Start > Set Mode ("Edit" group) > Forecast . The "Forecast" dialog opens.
  3. Switch to Validities tab.
  4. Activate the "Use validities" checkbox. The activity types with respective properties are shown in the table after the project years.
  5. Define the time units in the "Unit" column.
  6. Define the machine, working and setup times along with further validity values in the "Project year" columns.
  7. In the "Search Criteria" group, select the search criteria to use in the search for existing forecast parts.

  8. Click Search. The search is launched and the result is displayed in the extended dialog.

    Note

    Only list elements located in the Forecast folder in the Workspace Explorer and those whose costs do not equal 0 will be used in the search.

  9. Confirm your entries with OK.
WARNING

Because the software works with statistical methods, certain consequences result that must be kept in mind in order to achieve a satisfactory level of accuracy:

  • There must be a sufficient number of actual data sets, i.e. similar, previously produced and calculated manufacturing parts, in existence.
  • The cost function is only valid within the limits of the acquired part spectrum. It is important to be aware of the uncertainties inherent in any extrapolation. Extrapolation is therefore not permitted.
  • Only the existing part spectrum is represented in the costing according to its variety. If the regression analysis is carried out on the basis of relatively simple parts, for example, then it is not applicable when it comes to more complicated parts.
  • There is no one costing formula that is absolutely correct. The formula used is one that can give an adequate approximation for the data sets being used. It is left to the skill of the person using the program to select the representative data sets for the part entirety being worked on.